PUBCO Survey Fails Scrutiny

November 7, 2001

Ottawa: Ignoring effects from massive lay-offs in Ottawa’s technology sector, the onset of a national recession and the impact of September’s terrorist attacks, PUBCO’s findings don’t stand up to scrutiny. The Ottawa Council on Smoking and Health has compared the PUBCO survey with independent research from other smoke-free jurisdictions.

"This survey fails on so many grounds, it sheds absolutely no light on the effects of the new smoke-free bylaw. At best the survey captures fragments of data from about 15% of the city’s pubs and bars – and simply extrapolates the findings across the city. The survey is narrow in scope, incomplete and premature," said Carolyn Hill, President.

The Ottawa Council on Smoking and Health believes that there is no attempt to acknowledge the impact of the broader economic circumstances – no attempt to factor in Ottawa’s technology sector slump and a claim that any mention of the impact of September’s terrorist would be "shameless and exploitive". A credible analysis would need to be independent, involve a broader cross section of the hospitality sector and be conducted over a longer time period.

Carolyn Hill also states "You have to wonder about the calculator they were using – the survey is said to cover 54 of PUBCO’s 172 members. The media release says this represents "just over 1/3 of PUBCO’s membership". I don’t mean to quibble – but if they can’t divide by 3 what does that say."

Studies conducted on this issue in British Columbia and New York includes analysis of official data on liquor distribution sales, accommodation revenue data, restaurant, caterer and tavern receipts and employment data. Independent studies on smoke-free jurisdictions find only a modest short term impact and strong evidence of a neutral economic impact after a period of adjustment.

"The PUBCO survey was based on a sample of 54 establishments – and the authors acknowledge that 40% of the pubs reporting were not "fully compliant with the by-law or were totally non-compliant". I’m not sure what useful conclusions can be drawn from the survey, but we know that some owners feel they can ignore duly passed bylaws," states Carolyn Hill.

Economic Analysis of Smoke-free Jurisdictions - Three Studies

In addition to the PUBCO September survey of Ottawa’s smoke-free by-law there have been two similar studies conducted in other jurisdictions:

  1. Pacifica Analytics Inc, February 2001 "The Economic Impacts of the Proposed Amendment to the ETS Regulation" prepared for the Workers Compensation Board of British Columbia

  2. Cornell University School of Hotel Administration, 1995-1996, "Cornell Survey of New York City Patrons" prepared for Cornell Center for Hospitality Research on the impact of New York City’s Smoke-Free Air Act.

SURVEY

PUBCO

PACIFICA

CORNELL

Independent

NO

YES

YES

Survey Sample

54 pubs

Provincial

389 patrons

Data covers

1 month

8 months

4 months

Official Liquor Sales

NO

YES

NO

Accommodation Revenue

NO

YES

NO

Tavern Receipts

YES

YES

NO

Sector Employment Data

YES

YES

NO

Broader Employment Data

NO

YES

NO

Customer Behaviour

NO

NO

YES

Findings:

PUBCO: "The smoking prohibition is having a disastrous effect on locally owned establishments and
their employees."

PACIFICA: "Negative impacts for the first few months. However in the longer term, no measurable impact
on either employment or sales would be likely."

CORNELL: "Ultimately, smoke-free legislation is likely to have a positive impact on restaurant-industry
revenues. Our advice to other cities and municipalities is to consider similar legislation."

The Ottawa Council on Smoking and Health is a citizen based support group formed in 1978 to promote the passage of smoke-free by-laws and supports continuing efforts to ensure a healthy smoke-free environment.

Contact: Carolyn Hill, President OCSH
724-4212



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